Tuesday, 03 February 2026
The rate hike by the RBA gave the AUD a boost and pushed price beyond the target. Trade closed with a profit of +330 pips.
Sunday, 25 January 2026
Buy the dip on AUDJPY at 106.10 to ride the RBA’s hawkish stance against a frozen BoJ. Watch for a hot CPI print to drive the pair to 109.00, but bail out if Japan intervenes.
STRATEGIC LONG ENTRY AT 106.10 TARGETING RBA DIVERGENCE (SUCCESS RANK: 9/10)
We are looking at a prime setup here with a 9 out of 10 success probability. The strategy is to buy the AUDJPY pair on a dip to 106.10 just before the January 28 inflation data drops. Why? Because the Reserve Bank of Australia is practically the “Last Hawk Standing,” facing sticky 3.4 percent inflation and a massive 65,200 jobs surge. Contrast that with a paralyzed Bank of Japan stuck at 0.75 percent rates, and you have a massive yield gap working in your favor. This divergence creates a powerful tailwind for a long position that we want to capitalize on.
TACTICAL EXECUTION PLAN: PRE-CPI ACCUMULATION AND TARGETS
Be patient and wait for a liquidity pullback rather than chasing the high prices.
Entry Level: 106.10
Conditions: Iron ore holds 100 USD.
Take Profit: 108.40, extended target 109.40
Stop Loss: 105.10
CRITICAL RISK VECTORS: CPI MISS AND INTERVENTION PROTOCOLS
You have to watch your back on this trade because the risks are binary and could hit quickly.
CPI Miss: If the Australian trimmed mean inflation prints below 0.7 percent, you must abort immediately as the rate hike thesis collapses.
Intervention Risk: Keep a close eye on USDJPY; if it hits 160.00, Japanese officials might intervene, crushing the cross-pair.
Commodity Collapse: If Chinese iron ore demand falters and prices slide under 100 USD per tonne, the Aussie loses its support.