Monday, November 17, 2025
A TALE OF TWO HEMISPHERES: THE GREAT DIVERGENCE
The core driver for this trade is a profound and accelerating policy divergence that has become starkly clear over the past seven weeks. The Reserve Bank of Australia executed a “hawkish pivot,” fueled by a surprise inflation acceleration to 3.2 percent and a blockbuster October jobs report. In stark contrast, New Zealand is mired in a “dovish capitulation,” with a confirmed recession and a 50-basis-point rate cut cementing an aggressive easing stance. This tactical play is to pre-position for Australia’s pivotal Wage Price Index on November 19.
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