DOLLAR DANCES ON A KNIFE'S EDGE: Five-Day Outlook Sees US Fiscal Feud and Crucial Data Tests
Tuesday, 23rd July, Week 30
Euro's Fate Hangs in the Balance: Can the EUR/USD Withstand the Dollar's Fiscal Storm?
Euro's Five-Week Tug-of-War: Dollar Strength and Rate Hike Expectations Take Center Stage
The EUR/USD has been caught in a tug-of-war over the past five weeks, with the dollar's strength and shifting interest rate expectations driving volatility. The pair initially weakened, reaching a low of 1.0718 on 2nd May, as the dollar benefited from the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and safe-haven demand amid global uncertainty. However, the euro found its footing in June, rallying to a high of 1.0939 on 17th July, as the dollar weakened on growing expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. This euro rebound was further fuelled by a narrowing interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone, as markets began pricing in a potential pause in the ECB's rate hiking cycle.
The EUR/USD's recent price action has been largely confined to the 1.07-1.09 range, mirroring its broader trading pattern over the past five months. However, the pair's sensitivity to US economic data and the Fed's policy outlook has increased noticeably. The surprise PBoC rate cuts on 22nd July, aimed at stimulating the slowing Chinese economy, had a limited impact on the EUR/USD, with the market seemingly unimpressed by the scale of the measures.
Summary: The EUR/USD has fluctuated over the past five weeks, driven by shifting interest rate differentials and concerns about the US economy, leaving the pair's near-term outlook uncertain.
Euro's Five-Day Test: US Data Dominates the Agenda
Looking ahead, the EUR/USD's trajectory over the next five days will likely be determined by key US economic data releases, including the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Tues), US GDP Advance (Thurs), and Core PCE Price Index (Fri). Strong US data, particularly for GDP and Core PCE, could bolster the dollar and weigh on the EUR/USD, as it would reinforce the case for the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance. Conversely, weak US data could fuel expectations for a Fed pivot towards rate cuts, potentially supporting the euro and pushing the pair higher.
Upside: Weak US data, particularly for GDP and Core PCE, could fuel expectations for a Fed pivot towards rate cuts, potentially supporting the euro and pushing the EUR/USD higher.
Downside: Strong US data, particularly for GDP and Core PCE, could bolster the dollar and weigh on the EUR/USD, as it would reinforce the case for the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance.
Sterling's Post-Election Rally Fades: Can the GBP/USD Regain its Footing?
GBP/USD's Five-Week Rollercoaster: Election Euphoria Gives Way to Rate Cut Fears
The GBP/USD has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past five weeks, initially surging on the back of the Labour Party's victory in the UK general election on 4th July. The pair climbed from a low of 1.2541 on 1st May to a one-year high of 1.3006 on 17th July, as markets cheered the prospect of a more stable political landscape and a potential shift in the Bank of England's monetary policy stance. However, sterling's post-election euphoria proved short-lived, with the GBP/USD falling back below 1.29 as disappointing economic data, particularly weak retail sales for June, fuelled expectations for a BoE rate cut in August.
The GBP/USD's recent price action has been largely confined to the 1.25-1.30 range, broadly in line with its trading pattern over the past five months. However, the pair's sensitivity to UK economic data and the BoE's policy outlook has increased noticeably. The surprise PBoC rate cuts on 22nd July had a limited impact on the GBP/USD, with the market seemingly focused on domestic factors.
Summary: The GBP/USD has fluctuated over the past five weeks, driven by the UK general election, weak economic data, and shifting BoE rate cut expectations, leaving sterling's near-term outlook uncertain.
Sterling's Five-Day Test: BoE Speeches and UK Data in Focus
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD's trajectory over the next five days will likely be determined by speeches from BoE policymakers, key UK economic data releases, and the broader global risk sentiment. Speeches from BoE MPC members will be closely watched for signals about the Bank's thinking on inflation, the labour market, and the timing of potential rate cuts. Hawkish commentary from BoE officials could provide some support to sterling, while dovish remarks could weigh on the pound.
The release of the UK CBI Business Optimism Index (Thurs) and CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Thurs) will also be closely watched for insights into business sentiment and the outlook for the UK economy. Strong data could support sterling, while weak data could fuel expectations for a BoE rate cut, potentially weighing on the pound.
Upside: Hawkish commentary from BoE officials, coupled with strong UK economic data, could support sterling and push the GBP/USD higher over the next five days.
Downside: Dovish commentary from BoE officials, coupled with weak UK economic data, could weigh on sterling and push the GBP/USD lower over the next five days.
Yen's Intervention Boost Fades: Can the USD/JPY Break Through Resistance?
USD/JPY's Five-Week Dance: Intervention and Policy Shifts Drive Volatility
The USD/JPY has been on a wild ride over the past five weeks, driven by shifting interest rate differentials between the US and Japan, suspected government intervention, and speculation about the Bank of Japan's policy intentions. The pair initially strengthened, reaching a high of 158.095 on 20th June, as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates while the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the USD/JPY subsequently weakened, falling to a low of 155.6925 on 17th July, as the dollar weakened on growing expectations for a Fed rate cut in September and the BOJ signalled a potential shift towards policy normalisation.
The yen's decline was also arrested by suspected government intervention in mid-July, with the pair rallying from a low of 157.845 on 12th July to a high of 156.296 on 29th July. However, the intervention boost proved short-lived, with the USD/JPY climbing back above 157 as the market awaited further signals from the BOJ.
The USD/JPY's recent price action has been largely confined to the 155-159 range, broadly in line with its trading pattern over the past five months. However, the pair's sensitivity to shifts in monetary policy expectations and the potential for government intervention has increased noticeably. The surprise PBoC rate cuts on 22nd July had a limited impact on the USD/JPY, with the market seemingly focused on the BOJ's policy outlook.
Summary: The USD/JPY has fluctuated over the past five weeks, driven by shifting interest rate differentials, BOJ policy speculation, and Japanese government intervention, leaving the yen's near-term outlook uncertain.
Yen's Five-Day Test: US Data and BOJ Commentary in Focus
Looking ahead, the USD/JPY's trajectory over the next five days will likely be determined by key US economic data releases, commentary from BOJ officials, and the broader global risk sentiment. Strong US data, particularly for GDP and Core PCE, could bolster the dollar and weigh on the USD/JPY, as it would reinforce the case for the Fed to maintain its hawkish stance. Conversely, weak US data could fuel expectations for a Fed pivot towards rate cuts, potentially supporting the yen and pushing the pair lower.
Speeches from BOJ Senior Deputy Governor Rogers (Wed) and Deputy Governor Wakatabe (Wed) will be closely watched for signals about the Bank's thinking on inflation, the labour market, and the timing of potential policy normalisation. Hawkish commentary from BOJ officials could support the yen, while dovish remarks could weigh on the currency.
Upside: Strong US data, particularly for GDP and Core PCE, coupled with dovish commentary from BOJ officials, could boost the USD/JPY over the next five days.
Downside: Weak US data, particularly for GDP and Core PCE, coupled with hawkish commentary from BOJ officials, could weigh on the USD/JPY over the next five days.
Conclusion: Forex Markets on High Alert as Dollar Faces Crucial Tests
The forex market is bracing for a potentially volatile week as the dollar faces crucial tests from US fiscal developments and key economic data releases. The EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are all poised for potentially significant moves as forex traders assess the interplay of these factors.
Action Points:
Watch for signs of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in the Chinese economy, which could weigh on global risk sentiment.
Pay close attention to speeches from BoE and BOJ policymakers for signals about the timing and pace of potential policy shifts.
Scrutinise key US economic data releases, including the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Tues), US GDP Advance (Thurs), and Core PCE Price Index (Fri).
Key Economic Events (Next Four Days):
Tuesday 23rd July (Week 30): EU Consumer Confidence Flash, US Existing Home Sales, US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, CBRT Rate Decision, NBH Rate Decision
Wednesday 24th July (Week 30): Flash PMI data (France, Germany, Eurozone, UK), US MBA Mortgage Applications, US Advance Goods Trade Balance, BoC Rate Decision, BoE MPC member Pill speech, BOJ Senior Deputy Governor Rogers speech, BOJ Deputy Governor Wakatabe speech
Thursday 25th July (Week 30): German Ifo Business Climate, UK CBI Business Optimism Index, UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders, US GDP Advance, US Initial Jobless Claims, BoE MPC member Tenreyro speech
Thank you 😍