Euro in a downtrend, pressured by stronger dollar and growth pessimism
Euro Currency Report -October (ECB update)
Derbyshire, UK – October 27th, 2023 - This is the currency report for the Euro and is intended to be a reference aid for your own analysis and trade planning. The next update will be after the GDP and CPI reports on Tuesday, October 31st.
Decisions to trade are made at your own monetary risk.
Euro in a downtrend, pressured by stronger dollar and growth pessimism
The Russia-EU gas dispute and the war in Ukraine have caused significant disruptions to the European economy. Inflation is falling, but retail sales are also falling, and there are risks of a recession. The ECB has ended its interest rate hiking cycle after 10 consecutive meetings, but they remain hawkish and are focused on stamping out inflation. The economic outlook for Europe is uncertain, and the key will be to see how quickly inflation falls and how consumers respond to the rising cost of living.
Monetary Policy
The ECB Governing Council left interest rates at 4.50% in October, and likely ended the hiking cycle after 10 consecutive meetings. While inflation has dropped in recent months, the ECB remains hawkish and is focused on stamping it out. However, they are also increasingly concerned about the impact of rising rates on economic growth. The ECB is taking a data-dependent approach to determining future rate hikes, and their macroeconomic projections for 2023 are mixed, with GDP growth likely to slow and inflation expected to come in below expectations.
Interest Rates Hiked, ECB Target Inflation Over Growth
The six members of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council (plus nineteen governors from the national banks of the countries using the euro) set monetary policy, including the Main Refinancing Operations rate (interest rate). The main refinancing operations rate is the interest rate that banks pay to borrow money from the ECB overnight and is secured by bonds. This rate affects the interest that banks charge their borrowers.
The governing council meets to set monetary policy eight times a year, the latest was October 26th and the next is on December 14th.
The interest rate of the EA was held at the October meeting to end the hiking cycle of 10 consecutive meetings. This ECB remains hawkish and although their focus remains on stamping out high inflation, they are increasingly more observant of the impact rates are having on growth. Trading Economics forecast 4.50% to be the peak rate and cuts to 4.00% to happen during 2024.
Key points of the ECB’s Governing Council October 2023 meeting:
Rates unchanged at 4.50%, 4.75%, and 4.00% for the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility, and the deposit facility, respectively.
Inflation dropped markedly in September, including due to strong base effects, and most measures of underlying inflation have continued to ease.
Data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.
Sources: European Central Bank, Macroeconomic Projections, Trading Economics, FXStreet
The Economy is Slowly Growing but has a Mixed Outlook
The ECB’s Governing Council makes macroeconomic projections four times a year. The most recent was at their September meeting and they will be updated in December.
Annual Real GDP has a pessimistic outlook compared to the Governing Councils forecast and shows a contraction is likely.
Annual HICP has an optimistic outlook compared to the Governing Councils forecast and is on track to come in below expectations.
Market Narratives
Resilient US Economy is applying bearish pressure to the EUR/USD
The EUR/USD has gained and lost value in a contrarian correlation with US inflation rates which peaked in late 2022. The current downtrend of the EUR/USD formed in July 2023 when investors began to reposition for the likelihood that the Fed will keep rates higher-for-longer due to the US economy being more resilient than anticipated.
In the previous month, the EUR/USD has been moving up as it retraces the downtrend as economic indicators pointed to a slowing US economy during Q3.
Downside moves have the potential to test the support area ≈$1.046 while upside retracements could climb to test the resistance area of ≈$1.086.
Economic Indicators
The European economy is slowing down, with risks of a recession. Inflation is falling, but at a faster pace than expected, which is putting downward pressure on growth. Retail sales are also falling sharply, suggesting that consumers are spending less. Unemployment remains stable, but there is some concern that it could rise in the coming months.
Overall, the economic outlook for Europe is uncertain. The slowdown in growth could lead to a recession, but the fall in inflation could help to support the economy. The key will be to see how quickly inflation falls and how consumers respond to the rising cost of living.
Slowing economy falls short of recovery and signals recessionary risk ahead
The EA GDP quarterly rate report measures the change in value of goods and services produced in the EA over a given month compared with the previous. The latest data covers the Q2 period and was published on September 7th by Eurostat and the next version is out on October 31st.
The latest result of 0.10% was below expectations and signals that the economy is at a risk of recession although it is higher than the previous quarters contraction and above the baseline trend.
Trading Economics are forecasting 0.4% for Q4 which would be above the baseline trend of -0.5% and suggest optimism with regards to economic growth.
Sources: Eurostat, Trading Economics, FXStreet
Falling inflation quickens and applies bearish pressure to growth
The EA inflation rate report measures the change in value of a basket of goods and services in the EA over a given month compared with the previous. The latest data covers the September period and was published on October 18th by Eurostat and the next version is out on October 31st.
The latest result of 4.30% was as expected and signals that the falling rate of inflation is picking up pace as it is a sharp fall from the previous month and below the baseline trend. This applies bearish pressure to the economic outlook as demand falls and businesses compete for fewer customers. However, it could also be a sign that supply chains are improving.
Trading Economics are forecasting 3.6% for Q4 which would be below the baseline trend of 3.9% and suggest optimism with regards to the speedier pace of falling inflation.
Sources: Eurostat, Trading Economics, FXStreet
Falling retail sales quickens and applies bearish pressure to growth
The EA retail sales report measures the change in value of aggregated retail goods and services sales over a given month compared with the previous. The latest data covers the August period and was published on October 4th by Eurostat and the next version is out on November 8th.
The latest result of -1.20% was far below expectations and signals that the falling rate of retail sales is picking up pace as it is a very sharp fall from the previous month and far below the baseline trend. This applies bearish pressure to the economic outlook as consumers spend less.
Trading Economics are forecasting 0.6% for Q4 which would be below the baseline trend of -0.3% and suggest optimism with regards to a rebound of falling sales.
Sources: Eurostat, Trading Economics, FXStreet
Stable unemployment remains steady and applies indifferent pressure to growth
The EA unemployment rate report measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force over a given month. The latest data covers the August period and was published on October 2nd by Eurostat and the next version is out on November 3rd.
The latest result of 6.40% was as expected and signals that the stable rate of unemployment continues as it is the same as the previous month and the same as the baseline trend. This applies indifference to the economic outlook as businesses maintain employment levels.
Trading Economics are forecasting 6.8% (revised down from 7.0%) for Q4 which would be below the baseline trend of 6.3% and suggest some pessimism with regards to a stable labour market.
Sources: Eurostat, Trading Economics, FXStreet
Geopolitical Events
The Russia-EU gas dispute has caused significant disruptions to gas supplies to Europe. This has led to soaring gas prices, which are putting upward pressure on inflation. The war in Ukraine has also added uncertainty to the global economy, and is weighing on the euro area economy.
Russia-EU Gas Dispute Applies Upwards Pressure to Inflation
The Russia–EU gas dispute flared up in March 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. Russia cut the flow of gas to Europe significantly, and in September 2022, it stopped it altogether. As of August 2023, Russian pipeline gas exports continued to flow to some EU countries and non-EU countries in Europe, but the flow was significantly reduced from pre-war levels. Europe also imported record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia in 2022.
Recent Key Events
Russia has cut gas supplies to Europe significantly since April 2022, and stopped them altogether to Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, and Ukraine.
Russia has also reduced gas flows via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, citing technical difficulties.
In September 2022, the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines ruptured, likely due to sabotage.
European countries have been working to secure alternative gas supplies, including from Norway, Qatar, and the United States.
EU gas prices have soared in response to the disruptions, but have fallen in recent months as storage levels have increased.
The gas delivery disruptions have had a significant impact on the European economy, as gas is a key source of energy for many industries and households.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Adds Uncertainty
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine in an escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War which began in 2014. The invasion is the largest military conflict in Europe since World War II and has resulted in tens of thousands of casualties on both sides. The invasion has also caused a humanitarian crisis, with millions of Ukrainians displaced from their homes. The international community has condemned the invasion and imposed sanctions on Russia. The International Criminal Court is investigating possible war crimes and crimes against humanity committed by Russian forces.
Recent Key Events
June 2023: The Ukrainian counteroffensive in June 2023 made significant progress, with Ukraine liberating villages and reclaiming territory in the eastern Donbas region. The Wagner Group's rebellion against the Russian government was a major setback for Russia.
August 2023: Ukraine counteroffensive slowed by millions of mines laid by Russia. Ukrainian drones damage the Russian landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak.
September: An attack on Russian naval targets in Sevastopol damages the Black Sea fleet. Several oil and gas drilling platforms on the Black Sea held by Russia since 2015 have been retaken.
The war in Ukraine is having a negative impact on the global economy, including the value of the Euro. The war has caused energy prices to soar and disrupted supply chains, which are putting upward pressure on inflation and weighing on the EA economy.
Gavin Pearson
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