Navigating Choppy Waters: UK Macroeconomic Outlook Amidst Election Uncertainty

GBP rates will be affected by UK election, Bank of England announcement, and key economic data like GDP, CPI, and unemployment rate.

Tuesday, 2 July, Week 27: The UK economy is sailing through a period of mixed economic winds, with strong gusts of growth countered by persistent inflationary headwinds. As we approach the crucial general election and the Bank of England's next policy announcement, understanding the underlying economic currents is paramount for navigating the choppy waters of the forex market.

Fiscal Policy

Government spending and taxation (fiscal policy) guide the economy, influencing monetary policy and financial markets. It can stimulate or restrain economic activity, affecting inflation, interest rates, and investor confidence.

Over the past five months, the UK government has charted a course of fiscal easing, aiming to boost economic growth with a gentle tailwind. The Spring Budget 2024, announced in March, delivered a package of net tax cuts, including a further 2p reduction in the main rates of employee and self-employed National Insurance contributions. This move, estimated by the OBR to increase borrowing by an average of £8.0 billion per year, aims to provide a gentle tailwind to household incomes and spending. Looking ahead to the next five months, fiscal policy is expected to remain broadly accommodative, particularly in the run-up to the general election. The new government's fiscal plans, unveiled in the Autumn Statement, will be a key navigational marker for market participants, revealing the government's long-term fiscal direction.

Economics

Economics guides us in comprehending the UK economy's forces, monetary decisions, and investor behavior. Analysing indicators gives insights into the economy, allowing informed decisions in forex markets.

Over the past five months, the UK economy has weathered a storm of challenges, from high inflation and rising interest rates to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Despite these headwinds, the economy has demonstrated resilience, with GDP growth exceeding expectations in Q1 2024. However, the outlook remains uncertain, with the upcoming general election and the potential for further global economic shocks casting a shadow on the horizon. The easing of inflationary pressures and the prospect of Bank Rate cuts offer a potential tailwind to growth, but the strength and direction of these winds remain to be seen.

Economic Growth

• Recent Performance: The UK economy expanded by 0.7% in Q1 2024, revised up from a first estimate of 0.6%. This positive gust of growth followed two consecutive quarters of contraction, suggesting that the economy may be emerging from a period of economic doldrums.

• Contextual Forecasts: The Bank of England's May Monetary Policy Report projected GDP growth of 0.2% in Q2 2024, rising to 1.6% by Q2 2027. The preliminary estimate for Q2 GDP will be released on July 26th, providing a crucial update on the economy's trajectory.

• Analyst Insights: The recent upward revision to Q1 GDP and the positive outlook from the Bank of England suggest that the UK economy may be gaining momentum. However, the upcoming general election and the potential for further global economic shocks could act as headwinds to growth.

Labour

• Recent Performance: The UK labour market has shown signs of loosening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% in the three months to April 2024, up from 4.3% in the three months to March. The economic inactivity rate also increased to 22.3% in the three months to April 2024.

• Contextual Forecasts: The unemployment rate for the three months to May will be released on July 11th. The Claimant Count for June will be released on July 18th.

• Analyst Insights: The recent rise in unemployment and inactivity suggests that the labour market is losing some of its previous buoyancy. However, the unemployment rate remains relatively low by historical standards, indicating that the labour market is still relatively tight.

Price Changes

• Recent Performance: CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May 2024, down from 3.2% in March, bringing inflation back to the Bank of England's 2% target. Core CPI inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, eased to 3.5% in May, down from 3.9% in April. Annual private sector regular AWE growth declined to 6.0% in the three months to February.

• Contextual Forecasts: CPI inflation data for June will be released on July 17th. The Bank of England's May Monetary Policy Report projected CPI inflation to be 1.9% in two years' time and 1.6% in three years' time.

• Analyst Insights: The recent fall in CPI inflation is a welcome development, suggesting that inflationary pressures are easing. However, core inflation remains elevated, indicating that domestic price pressures are still present. The Bank of England will be monitoring inflation closely to assess whether further monetary policy action is needed.

Trade

• Recent Performance: The UK's trade deficit widened to £6.75 billion in April 2024, up from £1.10 billion in March. This was driven by an 8.2% increase in the value of goods imports, while the value of goods exports remained stable.

• Contextual Forecasts: Trade data for May will be released on July 11th.

• Analyst Insights: The widening trade deficit suggests that the UK economy is facing headwinds from weak external demand. The ongoing impact of Brexit and slowing global growth are likely to continue to weigh on trade performance.

Monetary Policy

Bank of England's interest rate and money supply policies influence borrowing costs, exchange rates, and the economy, guiding it toward its inflation target.

Over the past five months, the MPC has held Bank Rate steady at 5.25%, maintaining a restrictive stance to combat inflationary headwinds. This decision, aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and curbing price pressures, has contributed to a slowdown in economic activity and a loosening of the labour market. However, with inflation falling back to the 2% target, market expectations suggest that the MPC could soon shift course, introducing a gentle tailwind of monetary easing. The Bank of England's next policy announcement, scheduled for July 18th, will be a pivotal moment, revealing the MPC's assessment of the economy's resilience and the outlook for inflation. Market participants will be scrutinising the MPC's statement and updated economic projections for clues on the timing and magnitude of future rate cuts.

Market Risk

Market risk, crucial to forex traders, can impact exchange rates and investment decisions. Understanding and managing it is vital to navigate uncertainties and protect against adverse price movements.

Significant Risk

• Date: July 4th, 2024
  Event: UK General Election
  Synopsis: The UK general election will significantly impact GBP pairs. A Labour victory could lead to initial weakness in GBP due to uncertainty, particularly against safe-haven currencies like USD and JPY. However, GBP might strengthen in the long term against EUR and other risk-sensitive currencies if Labour delivers stability and growth.

• Date: July 9th-11th, 2024
  Event: NATO Summit (Washington D.C.)
  Synopsis: The NATO summit will likely focus on Ukraine and Russia. Any escalation in tensions or significant announcements regarding military aid could impact GBP indirectly through its effects on global risk sentiment.

• Date: August 1st, 2024
  Event: Implementation of US tariffs on Chinese EVs and other strategic goods
  Synopsis: The implementation of US tariffs on Chinese goods will likely escalate trade tensions. This could impact GBP indirectly through its effects on global trade and risk sentiment.

Minor Risk

• Date: July 11th, 2024
  Event: US CPI
  Synopsis: US inflation data will be crucial for USD and could impact GBP/USD. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen USD and weaken GBP.

• Date: July 17th, 2024
  Event: CPI inflation data for June
  Synopsis: UK inflation data will be important for GBP and Bank of England policy expectations. Lower-than-expected inflation could weaken GBP, as it could increase the likelihood of a Bank Rate cut.

• Date: July 18th, 2024
  Event: Bank of England Policy Announcement
  Synopsis: The Bank of England's policy announcement will be crucial for GBP. Any change in the policy rate or forward guidance will likely have a significant impact on GBP exchange rates.

Conclusion

The UK economy is currently facing a confluence of crosswinds, with the general election, monetary policy decisions, and global economic developments all having the potential to shift the direction of GBP. Forex traders should closely monitor these factors and adjust their positions accordingly to navigate the uncertain waters ahead.

Reference

• Bank of England

• Confederation of British Industry

• GfK Group

• HM Revenue & Customs

• Office for Budget Responsibility, UK

• Office for National Statistics (UK)

• S&P Global