Tuesday, 21 October 2025
The analysis affirms a bearish thesis for the NZD/CAD, driven by a structurally weak New Zealand dollar against a cyclically weak but fiscally supported Canadian dollar.
New Zealand’s economy is in a confirmed recession, locking its central bank into an aggressive easing cycle and cementing the Kiwi’s role as a funding currency.
Canada is at a pivotal “policy hand-off” where expected monetary easing is poised to be supplemented by significant fiscal stimulus, creating a clear path for recovery.
The upcoming Canadian federal budget on November 4 is the single most important catalyst that is expected to validate the Canadian dollar recovery narrative.
Technical analysis confirms the bearish fundamental outlook, with the pair having decisively broken its long-term support and established a clear downtrend.
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