What to Trade this Week as Tariffs and Central Bank Dominate
What to Buy and What to Sell
Monday, January 27, 2025, Week 5
The Forex market kicks off the week with considerable uncertainty. Diverging central bank policies, particularly the hawkish Fed against a backdrop of easing biases from other major central banks, are creating volatility and opportunities. Geopolitical risks, stemming from the new Trump administration's trade policies and ongoing tensions with China, add another layer of complexity. This week's economic calendar includes crucial data releases like the Fed’s meeting, inflation figures, the Bank of Canada's rate decision, and the ECB's policy meeting. These releases, along with the ever-present geopolitical backdrop, will be key drivers of currency movements. This report aims to equip traders with the insights needed to navigate this complex landscape.
Currency Strength Overview
USD (Very Strong - Very Bullish): The dollar's dominance continues, underpinned by a hawkish Fed, a resilient US economy, and safe-haven demand. (Rating: No change).
JPY (Strong - Bullish): The Yen remains strong, driven by expectations of a BOJ policy shift towards normalization and a moderately recovering economy. (Rating: No change).
CHF (Moderately Strong - Moderately Bearish): Safe-haven appeal supports the CHF, but the SNB's dovish stance and potential intervention limit upside. (Rating: Downgraded from Strong - Moderately Bullish).
EUR (Weak - Bearish): The Euro's weakness persists due to the ECB's dovish stance, political uncertainty in key member states, and a stronger USD. (Rating: No change).
GBP (Weak - Bearish): The GBP faces headwinds from the BoE's cautious approach, sluggish economic growth, and persistent inflation. (Rating: No change).
CAD (Weak - Bearish): The Loonie remains weak, pressured by a dovish BoC, slowing growth, political uncertainty following Trudeau's resignation, and the looming threat of US tariffs. (Rating: Downgraded from Moderately Weak - Bearish).
AUD (Weak - Bearish): The AUD's bearish outlook persists due to a cautious RBA, weak domestic data, concerns about the Chinese economy, and a stronger USD. (Rating: No change).
NZD (Very Weak - Very Bearish): The NZD remains very weak, weighed down by the ongoing recession, aggressive RBNZ easing, weak domestic demand, and external headwinds. (Rating: No change).
USD: King Dollar Reigns Supreme Amid Hawkish Fed and Trump's Shadow
The US dollar has been on a tear, and for good reason. Over the past six weeks, the greenback has outperformed its major counterparts, propelled by a Federal Reserve that's become increasingly hawkish. This past week, the USD initially rallied to two-year highs on the back of safe-haven demand and strong jobs data. While it has retreated, the overall trend remains bullish. The Fed's December meeting minutes, released on January 8th, reinforced the central bank's cautious approach to future rate cuts, and recent speeches from Fed officials have further cemented this stance. The market is now pricing a slower pace of easing in 2025. The incoming Trump administration's trade and fiscal policies are a wildcard. Trump's calls for lower interest rates and mixed messages on tariffs have injected volatility into the market.
Looking ahead to the next ten days, all eyes will be on the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference on January 29th. Any hawkish signals from Chair Powell will likely fuel further USD strength. We've also got a slew of economic data releases, including the advance Q4 GDP growth rate on January 30th and the Core PCE Price Index on January 31st, which could provide further clues about the Fed's policy path. The market expects the Fed to remain on hold this month, but any hints about the timing of future rate cuts (or lack thereof) will be closely scrutinized. The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies, particularly regarding trade, will continue to be a major factor influencing the dollar. While recent reports hinted at a potentially less aggressive approach to tariffs, Trump's subsequent denials have kept the market on edge.
The US dollar maintains its Very Strong fundamental rating and Very Bullish sentiment outlook. The Fed's hawkish stance, coupled with a resilient US economy and safe-haven demand amid global uncertainties, continues to support the greenback. The incoming Trump administration's policies, particularly on trade, will be a key factor to watch in the coming weeks.
Key US Economic Indicators to Watch (Jan 28 - Feb 05):
Jan 28: US Durable Goods Orders MoM (DEC). Forecast: 0.80%. A positive figure would signal continued strength in the manufacturing sector and could further support the USD, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient economy.
Jan 29: US Fed Interest Rate Decision. The market anticipates the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference for insights into future policy direction. A hawkish stance or signals could strengthen the USD, while a more dovish tone could lead to some profit-taking.
Jan 29: US Fed Press Conference. Powell's comments will be scrutinized for clues about the Fed's policy outlook, particularly regarding the timing and magnitude of any future rate adjustments. Hawkish commentary would likely support the USD.
Jan 30: US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv (Q4). Forecast: 2.70%. Stronger-than-expected growth would reinforce the narrative of a robust US economy and support the USD, potentially leading to further appreciation.
Jan 31: US Core PCE Price Index MoM (DEC). Forecast: 0.20%. A higher-than-expected reading could raise inflation concerns and potentially strengthen the USD, as it would reinforce the Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts.
Jan 31: US Personal Income MoM (DEC). Forecast: 0.40%. Stronger income growth could boost consumer spending and support the USD, indicating a healthy economy.
Jan 31: US Personal Spending MoM (DEC). Forecast: 0.40%. Robust consumer spending would further reinforce the narrative of a strong US economy and potentially support the USD.
Feb 03: US ISM Manufacturing PMI (JAN). Forecast: 49.3. A reading above 50 would signal expansion in the manufacturing sector, potentially boosting the USD.
Feb 05: US ISM Services PMI (JAN). A strong reading would indicate continued expansion in the dominant services sector, supporting the USD.
CAD: Loonie on Thin Ice as Trudeau Exits and Tariffs Loom
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been under pressure, and the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on January 6th has only added fuel to the fire. This has created a leadership vacuum and injected significant political uncertainty into the market, pushing the CAD towards multi-year lows against the USD. Adding to the CAD's woes is the looming threat of US tariffs under the incoming Trump administration. Canada's heavy reliance on trade with the US makes it particularly vulnerable to any protectionist measures.
Over the past six weeks, the CAD has been one of the worst-performing major currencies. The Bank of Canada's (BoC) dovish stance, marked by a 50 basis point rate cut in December, has contributed to the currency's weakness. The market is now pricing in the possibility of further easing in early 2025, fueled by slower-than-expected economic growth and a rise in the unemployment rate. This past week, we saw the USD/CAD pair hit a near five-year high of 1.45. The CAD initially found some support from reports suggesting a softer approach to tariffs from Trump, but his denial quickly reversed those gains. The ongoing inquiry into alleged Chinese interference in past Canadian elections adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape, potentially straining Canada-China relations and impacting trade.
Looking ahead, the next ten days will be crucial for the CAD. The BoC's upcoming interest rate decision and Monetary Policy Report on January 29th are the main events to watch. Any signals of further easing will likely put more downward pressure on the Loonie. The market will also be closely watching for any developments regarding the Liberal Party's leadership race and any hints about the new Prime Minister's policy direction. Over the next six weeks, the evolving US trade policy under Trump and the performance of the Canadian economy, particularly the oil sector, will be key drivers of CAD sentiment.
The CAD is in a precarious position, and the fundamental outlook remains Weak with a Bearish sentiment. The combination of political uncertainty, a dovish central bank, and the threat of US tariffs creates a challenging environment for the currency. While the recent improvement in the unemployment rate and the rise in manufacturing sales offer a glimmer of hope, these are likely to be overshadowed by the broader negative factors.
Selling the CAD appears to be the favored strategy at the moment, given the prevailing headwinds. However, traders should remain cautious and closely monitor the BoC's communications, economic data releases, and any developments related to US trade policy. The COT report, showing mixed positioning in CAD futures, also suggests a degree of uncertainty among traders.
Key Canadian Economic Indicators to Watch (Jan 28 - Feb 05):
Jan 29: CA BoC Monetary Policy Report. This report will provide crucial insights into the BoC's economic and inflation outlook, shaping market expectations for future policy moves. A dovish outlook could further weaken the CAD.
Jan 29: CA BoC Interest Rate Decision. The market anticipates a potential rate cut, although the BoC may opt to hold rates steady given the recent improvement in some economic indicators. A rate cut would likely lead to further CAD weakness, while a hold could provide some temporary support.
Feb 05: CA Balance of Trade (DEC). Forecast: C$ -1.6B. A wider-than-expected trade deficit could add to the negative sentiment surrounding the CAD.
Feb 06: CA Ivey PMI s.a (JAN). This indicator provides insights into the health of the Canadian manufacturing sector. A weaker-than-expected reading could further weigh on the CAD.
Feb 07: CA Unemployment Rate (JAN). Forecast: 6.80%. A rising unemployment rate would add to concerns about the Canadian economy and likely pressure the CAD.
GBP: Sterling on the Ropes as BoE Mulls Rate Cuts
The British Pound (GBP) is facing strong headwinds, maintaining a Weak fundamental rating and a Bearish sentiment outlook. The Bank of England's (BoE) cautious monetary policy stance, coupled with concerns about sluggish economic growth and persistent inflation, is putting significant downward pressure on the currency. The market is increasingly pricing in the possibility of a BoE rate cut in the first half of 2025, fueled by weaker-than-expected economic data, including declining retail sales and a plunge in consumer confidence.
Over the past six weeks, the GBP has underperformed against most major currencies, driven by the BoE's dovish tilt and concerns about the UK economy. The past ten days saw the GBP weaken further. This decline was fueled by a combination of factors, including disappointing economic data, rising UK gilt yields, and a stronger US dollar. The new Labour government's fiscal policies, particularly increased spending and their potential impact on inflation, are also being closely monitored by the market. The commitment to increasing the minimum wage and potential changes to corporation tax could impact business profitability and the GBP. Geopolitical factors, including the UK's relationship with the EU and the potential for renewed trade tensions with the US under the incoming Trump administration, add another layer of complexity.
Looking ahead, the next ten days will be crucial for the GBP, with the release of key economic data, including the S&P Global/CIPS UK Manufacturing and Services PMI Flash for January. Over the next six weeks, the BoE's policy path, the performance of the UK economy, and the evolving political landscape under the new Labour government will be key drivers of GBP sentiment. The BoE's next monetary policy meeting on February 5th will be a major event to watch.
The GBP is in a precarious position, and the fundamental outlook remains Weak with a Bearish sentiment. The combination of a cautious BoE, weak economic data, and persistent inflation creates a challenging environment for the currency. While the recent increase in defense spending and a tougher stance on China could provide some support, these factors are likely to be overshadowed by the broader economic concerns.
Selling the GBP appears to be the favored strategy at the moment, given the prevailing headwinds. However, traders should remain cautious and closely monitor the BoE's communications, economic data releases, and any shifts in the political landscape. The COT report, showing mixed positioning in GBP futures, also suggests a degree of uncertainty among traders.
Key UK Economic Indicators to Watch (Jan 28 - Feb 05):
Feb 06: GB BoE Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 4.50%. A rate cut would likely weaken the GBP, confirming the market's bearish expectations. The accompanying statement and any signals regarding future policy moves will be closely scrutinized.
EUR: Euro Caught Between ECB Easing and Political Headwinds
The Euro (EUR) remains under pressure, maintaining a Weak fundamental rating and a Bearish sentiment outlook. The European Central Bank's (ECB) dovish monetary policy stance, with a key interest rate of 3.15% and the possibility of further easing, is a primary driver of the EUR's weakness. The market is pricing in multiple rate cuts in 2025, reflecting a bearish outlook for the currency. The Eurozone economy is sending mixed signals, with projected growth of just 0.7% for 2024 and persistent weakness in the manufacturing sector, although the services sector shows some signs of recovery.
Over the past six weeks, the EUR has underperformed, driven by the ECB's dovish stance and concerns about the Eurozone's economic and political landscape. The past ten days saw the EUR initially strengthen on hopes of a softer US tariff approach, but these gains were short-lived. The currency faced renewed pressure, falling back towards the $1.03 mark, influenced by the ECB's dovish stance, weak German economic data, and persistent political uncertainty. Political instability in key member states like France and Germany adds another layer of complexity. The crisis within the French government in early December and the loss of a confidence vote by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in mid-December, leading to snap elections in February, have raised concerns about the Eurozone's ability to implement cohesive economic policies. The ongoing war in Ukraine and its impact on energy security, as well as the potential for renewed trade tensions with the US under the incoming Trump administration, further contribute to the uncertain outlook.
Looking ahead, the next ten days will be crucial for the EUR, with the ECB's interest rate decision and press conference on January 30th taking center stage. The market anticipates another 25 bps rate cut. Any signals from ECB President Lagarde regarding the future path of monetary policy will be closely watched. Over the next six weeks, the political landscape in Germany and France, particularly the upcoming snap elections in Germany, and the evolving US trade policy will be key drivers of EUR sentiment.
The EUR is in a difficult position, and the fundamental outlook remains Weak with a Bearish sentiment. The combination of a dovish ECB, weak economic data, and political uncertainty creates a challenging environment for the currency. The ECB's commitment to maintaining price stability and supporting the economy through accommodative measures is being tested by the complex geopolitical landscape and the diverging monetary policy stances of other major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve.
Selling the EUR appears to be the favored strategy at the moment, given the prevailing headwinds. However, traders should remain cautious and closely monitor the ECB's communications, economic data releases, and any shifts in the political landscape. The COT report, showing a bearish positioning in EUR futures, suggests that institutional investors are also betting on further depreciation.
Key Euro Area Economic Indicators to Watch (Jan 28 - Feb 05):
Jan 30: EA GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash (Q4). Forecast: 0.30%. Weaker-than-expected GDP growth would reinforce the bearish outlook for the EUR, potentially leading to further depreciation.
Jan 30: EA Unemployment Rate (DEC). Forecast: 6.50%. A rising unemployment rate would add to concerns about the Eurozone economy and further pressure the EUR.
Jan 30: EA Deposit Facility Rate. Any change to the rate could signal a policy shift and significantly impact the EUR.
Jan 30: EA ECB Interest Rate Decision. The market anticipates another 25bps rate cut, which would likely weaken the EUR.
Jan 30: EA ECB Press Conference. Lagarde's comments will be closely watched for policy clues and could significantly influence the EUR's direction.
Feb 03: EA Inflation Rate YoY Flash (JAN). This will provide further insights into inflationary pressures within the Eurozone.
CHF: Swiss Franc Navigates Safe-Haven Flows and SNB's Dovish Stance
The Swiss Franc (CHF) presents a mixed picture for Forex traders, maintaining a Moderately Strong fundamental rating due to its safe-haven status but with a Moderately Bearish sentiment outlook influenced by the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) dovish monetary policy.
Over the past six weeks, the CHF has experienced periods of both strength and weakness. Global uncertainties, including political turmoil in South Korea and France, along with renewed US-China trade tensions, have boosted demand for the CHF as a safe-haven asset. This was evident in the relative stability of the Swiss Market Index (SMI) and declining Swiss bond yields. However, the SNB's surprise 50 basis point rate cut in December 2024 to 0.5% exerted downward pressure on the currency. This aggressive move, which exceeded market expectations, signaled the SNB's commitment to stimulating the economy and managing the CHF's strength. The past ten days saw the CHF hold relatively steady, supported by its safe-haven status amid renewed global market volatility. However, the SNB's dovish stance and the potential for further easing or intervention limited the CHF's gains.
Looking ahead, the next ten days will be relatively quiet on the Swiss economic calendar, with no major data releases scheduled. However, the market will continue to monitor the global geopolitical landscape and any signals from the SNB regarding future policy moves. Over the next six weeks, the interplay between safe-haven demand, SNB policy, and global economic developments will be key drivers of CHF sentiment. The SNB's substantial foreign exchange reserves and its willingness to intervene in the forex market to curb excessive CHF appreciation add another layer of complexity to the market narrative.
The CHF's fundamental strength is underpinned by Switzerland's stable political environment, strong economy, and the currency's safe-haven status. However, the SNB's dovish monetary policy and the potential for further easing or intervention create a Moderately Bearish sentiment outlook.
Trading the CHF presents a balanced risk/reward scenario. While safe-haven demand could support the currency during periods of global uncertainty, the SNB's actions and the potential for further easing limit the upside potential. Traders should closely monitor the SNB's communications, economic data releases, and global geopolitical developments for a clearer picture of the CHF's likely trajectory.
Key Swiss Economic Indicators to Watch (Jan 28 - Feb 05):
Jan 30: CH Balance of Trade (DEC). Forecast: CHF 1.7B. A wider surplus could support the CHF, potentially offsetting some of the downward pressure from the SNB's easing policy.
Jan 30: CH KOF Leading Indicators (JAN). This indicator will provide insights into the Swiss economy's future direction and could influence CHF sentiment.
Jan 31: CH Retail Sales YoY (DEC). Forecast: 3%. Stronger retail sales could signal improving consumer demand and potentially support the CHF, but the impact might be limited by the broader economic outlook.
Feb 03: CH procure.ch Manufacturing PMI (JAN). This will provide insights into the health of the Swiss manufacturing sector.
Feb 06: CH Unemployment Rate (JAN). This will provide further insights into the Swiss labor market.
Feb 07: CH Consumer Confidence (JAN). This will provide further insights into consumer sentiment.
JPY: Yen Bulls Charge as BOJ Signals Policy Shift
The Japanese Yen (JPY) maintains a Strong fundamental rating and a Bullish sentiment outlook. The primary driver of the Yen's strength is the growing expectation of a policy shift by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) towards normalization. The BOJ's recent rate hike to 0.5% on January 24th, along with signals of potential further tightening, has fueled these expectations.
Over the past six weeks, the JPY has appreciated significantly, driven by speculation about the BOJ's policy intentions. The Yen's performance over the past ten days was particularly volatile. It initially weakened, but then strengthened following the BOJ's rate hike. The BOJ's statement, projecting inflation to reach its 2% target and hinting at further rate increases contingent on economic data, added a hawkish tilt to the narrative. The Yen's sensitivity to global risk sentiment, particularly concerning US-China trade tensions and the potential impact of the new Trump administration's policies, remains a factor.
Looking ahead, the next ten days will be relatively quiet on the Japanese economic calendar. However, the market will be closely watching for any comments from BOJ officials that could provide further clues about the future path of monetary policy. Over the next six weeks, the BOJ's policy decisions, economic data releases, and global risk sentiment will be key drivers of JPY sentiment. The BOJ's Summary of Opinions from the December meeting, revealing differing views among board members on the timing of another rate hike, will be scrutinized for insights into the central bank's thinking.
The JPY's fundamental strength is underpinned by the BOJ's hawkish shift and the prospect of further policy normalization. The moderately recovering Japanese economy, with better-than-expected Q3 GDP growth and some positive wage data, adds to the bullish outlook. However, the potential for renewed US-China trade tensions and the uncertain global economic environment pose risks.
Buying the JPY appears to be the favored strategy, given the BOJ's hawkish stance and the Yen's potential for further appreciation. However, traders should be mindful of the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" phenomenon, as the rate hike may have already been partially priced in. The mixed positioning in the COT report also suggests some uncertainty among traders.
Key Japanese Economic Indicators to Watch (Jan 28 - Feb 05):
Jan 29: JP Consumer Confidence (JAN). Forecast: 36.3. Stronger-than-expected consumer confidence could further support the JPY, reinforcing the positive sentiment.
AUD: Aussie Under Pressure as RBA Rate Cut Speculation Mounts
The Australian Dollar (AUD) maintains a Weak fundamental rating and a Bearish sentiment outlook. The currency faces multiple headwinds, including a cautious Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), weak domestic economic data, concerns about a potential slowdown in China (a key trading partner), and a strong US dollar. The looming threat of US tariffs under the incoming Trump administration adds another layer of complexity.
Over the past six weeks, the AUD has underperformed, driven by the RBA's dovish tilt and concerns about the global economic outlook. The past ten days saw the AUD experience volatility, due to USD weakness and positive risk sentiment, but later facing pressure from US-China trade tensions and RBA rate cut speculation. The RBA's cautious stance, highlighted by the December meeting minutes and the subsequent dovish market interpretation, has fueled expectations of a potential rate cut in early 2025. While stronger-than-expected December employment data (released on January 12th) tempered these expectations somewhat, the overall outlook for the AUD remains bearish.
Looking ahead, the next ten days will be relatively quiet on the Australian economic calendar. However, the market will be closely watching the release of the NAB Business Confidence survey for December on January 28th and the Q4 inflation data on January 29th. Over the next six weeks, the RBA's policy path, the performance of the Chinese economy, and the evolving US trade policy under the Trump administration will be key drivers of AUD sentiment.
The AUD's fundamental weakness is underscored by the RBA's dovish stance, weak domestic data, and concerns about China's economic slowdown. While the recent improvement in the unemployment rate and retail sales offered some support, these are likely to be outweighed by the broader negative factors.
Selling the AUD appears to be the favored strategy at the moment, given the prevailing headwinds. However, traders should remain cautious and closely monitor the RBA's communications, economic data releases, and any developments related to US-China trade relations. The COT report, showing a mixed positioning in AUD futures, also suggests a degree of uncertainty among traders.
Key Australian Economic Indicators to Watch (Jan 28 - Feb 05):
Jan 28: AU NAB Business Confidence (DEC). Forecast: 3. Weaker business confidence could further weigh on the AUD, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Jan 29: AU Inflation Rate YoY (Q4). Forecast: 2.20%. Lower-than-expected inflation could reinforce the RBA's dovish stance and put additional downward pressure on the AUD.
NZD: Kiwi Remains in the Doldrums Amid Recession and Dovish RBNZ
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) continues to face significant challenges, maintaining a Very Weak fundamental rating and a Very Bearish sentiment outlook. The confirmed technical recession, marked by a 1% GDP contraction in Q3 2024, is a major concern. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) aggressive easing cycle, with the Official Cash Rate (OCR) now at 4.25% and expectations of a further 50 basis point cut in February, adds to the bearish sentiment.
Over the past six weeks, the NZD has been the worst-performing major currency, driven by the RBNZ's dovish stance and the deteriorating economic outlook. The past ten days saw the NZD experience some volatility, initially strengthening against the USD on the back of a weaker greenback and China holding its loan prime rates steady. However, the currency weakened later in the week, influenced by concerns over President Trump's trade policies and their potential impact on China, New Zealand's largest trading partner.
Looking ahead, the next ten days will be relatively quiet on the New Zealand economic calendar. However, the market will be closely watching the release of the Q4 inflation data on January 21st for any signs of price pressures that could influence the RBNZ's policy decisions. Over the next six weeks, the RBNZ's monetary policy stance, economic data releases, and global risk sentiment will be crucial in determining the NZD's trajectory. The performance of the dairy sector, a key export earner, will also be a factor to watch.
The NZD's fundamental weakness is underscored by the ongoing recession, weak domestic demand, and the RBNZ's aggressive easing cycle. While there have been some positive signs, such as improving consumer confidence and a narrowing trade deficit, these are likely to be overshadowed by broader economic concerns.
Selling the NZD appears to be the favored strategy at the moment, given the prevailing headwinds. However, traders should remain cautious and closely monitor the RBNZ's communications, economic data releases, and any developments related to global commodity prices and trade relations. The COT report, showing a mixed positioning in NZD futures, also suggests a degree of uncertainty among traders.
Key New Zealand Economic Indicators to Watch (Jan 28 - Feb 05):
Jan 29: NZ Balance of Trade (DEC). Forecast: NZ$ -0.34B. A wider-than-expected trade deficit could further weaken the NZD, adding to the bearish sentiment.
Jan 30: NZ ANZ Business Confidence (JAN). Weaker business confidence could further weigh on the NZD, reinforcing the negative outlook.
Concluding This Week's Analysis
The upcoming week promises to be eventful, with key central bank decisions, crucial economic data releases, and the ongoing saga of Trump's trade policies. The potential for increased trade tensions between the US and its trading partners, particularly China, will also be a significant driver of market sentiment.
Key Economic Indicators to Watch:
Jan 29: AU Inflation Rate YoY (Q4). Forecast: 2.20%. Lower-than-expected inflation could reinforce the RBA's dovish stance and pressure the AUD.
Jan 29: CA BoC Monetary Policy Report. This report will offer crucial insights into the BoC's economic and inflation outlook, shaping market expectations for future policy moves. A dovish outlook could further weaken the CAD.
Jan 29: CA BoC Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 3.00%. The market anticipates a potential rate cut, which would likely weaken the CAD. A hold decision might provide temporary support, but the overall outlook remains bearish.
Jan 29: US Fed Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 4.50%. A hawkish stance or signals of fewer rate cuts than anticipated could strengthen the USD.
Jan 30: EA ECB Interest Rate Decision. Forecast: 2.90%. A rate cut, as widely expected, would likely weaken the EUR, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
Sources
Bloomberg, Reuters, Trading Economics, ForexLive, Federal Reserve, ECB, BOJ, BOE, RBA, RBNZ, SNB, BOC, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, Statistics Canada, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Statistics New Zealand, Swiss Federal Statistical Office, Office for National Statistics, Cabinet Office Japan, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Ministry of Finance Japan, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry Japan, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Japan, Bank of Japan, Swiss Federal Department of Finance, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics, UK, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.