The next few days feel cautiously bullish for EUR 🔍. All eyes on the upcoming ECB meeting (Mar 19) and any surprise in euro‑area HICP prints – if inflation under‑ or overshoots consensus, expect sharp repricing in EURUSD and front‑end yields.
For traders, the punchline: the euro area has transitioned from post‑shock healing to a tentative soft landing, with inflation around 2 percent, unemployment near record lows and Q4 growth beating expectations.
The ECB’s deposit rate at 2.00 percent and main refinancing rate at 2.15 percent anchor rate differentials, while markets see a long plateau rather than imminent cuts, capping EUR downside unless US data significantly outperform.
Bond yields are lower but stable, equities trade near highs on improving sentiment, and EUR has appreciated substantially versus USD, shifting the focus from crisis relief to competitiveness and current‑account trends.
Into the next quarter, the key FX drivers will be incoming inflation and labour data, the March ECB meeting tone, and any escalation in trade tensions that could knock the euro‑area export engine.
