A side Note. Ever wonder why US currency is the color green? The colonials lacked faith in the 1st continental currency (tan colored), with the saying "it's not worth a continental". Read history here:
Haven't given it a second thought but I do feel more informed on the topic having now read your article and given me some interest on the topic. Have you written about any other currencies and the reasons for why they are coloured or using a particular image on the notes? - Regards, Gavin.
No I haven't written about other currencies, although that's an interesting topic. I tend to focus on American history especially early American. I am fascinated about the dreaded topic of hyper inflation, how in recent years it affected Venezuela. I did hear Venezuela is using the US dollar now more and more.
The technical analysis here is sound. But there's a structural irony running through every bullish catalyst you've identified that's worth naming.
The Hormuz blockade drives oil above $110. That drives inflation. That drives yields higher. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest payments on U.S. government bonds.
Now ask: who benefits from those interest payments?
USD1 - the private stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, in which Trump, his sons, and his chief diplomatic negotiator Steve Witkoff hold direct financial stakes - backs its reserves with U.S. Treasury bonds. The interest on those bonds, paid by American taxpayers, flows 75% into Trump and Witkoff family accounts. Every basis point of yield increase you're trading as a bullish dollar signal is simultaneously increasing the private seigniorage flowing to the family running the geopolitical crisis that generated it.
And Witkoff - the man negotiating America's position in the Middle East, the exact region where the Hormuz blockade is happening — is a direct financial beneficiary of the energy shock driving your thesis.
The safe-haven premium is real. The yield advantage is real. Your trade setup may well be correct.
But the dollar you're trading bullish is being quietly hollowed out from the inside. The question isn't whether the dollar strengthens in the next few weeks. It's whether the institution behind it still exists in the form you're pricing in.
fascinating commentary - I would hope that until the US bonds have a direct competitor on a similar scale then the USD can survive the hollowing out as you framed it.
Thank you and that's a reasonable hope. The dollar's structural advantages are real, and you're right that no external competitor comes close to matching the depth of U.S. bond markets.
But the threat I'm describing doesn't need an external competitor. It comes from within.
USD1 is backed by U.S. Treasury bonds. As it scales, it absorbs more of the Treasury market, not replacing it, but sitting on top of it, extracting the interest yield that would otherwise flow back to the public. The dollar survives. The institution behind it is hollowed out. The seigniorage, the profit from issuing currency, migrates from the Federal Reserve to a private family network.
A side Note. Ever wonder why US currency is the color green? The colonials lacked faith in the 1st continental currency (tan colored), with the saying "it's not worth a continental". Read history here:
https://maryannmehegan.substack.com/p/why-are-us-dollars-green
Haven't given it a second thought but I do feel more informed on the topic having now read your article and given me some interest on the topic. Have you written about any other currencies and the reasons for why they are coloured or using a particular image on the notes? - Regards, Gavin.
No I haven't written about other currencies, although that's an interesting topic. I tend to focus on American history especially early American. I am fascinated about the dreaded topic of hyper inflation, how in recent years it affected Venezuela. I did hear Venezuela is using the US dollar now more and more.
Ok well American History is a topic that fascinates me so I've subscribed and look forward to seeing more of your work. Regards -Gavin
The technical analysis here is sound. But there's a structural irony running through every bullish catalyst you've identified that's worth naming.
The Hormuz blockade drives oil above $110. That drives inflation. That drives yields higher. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest payments on U.S. government bonds.
Now ask: who benefits from those interest payments?
USD1 - the private stablecoin issued by World Liberty Financial, in which Trump, his sons, and his chief diplomatic negotiator Steve Witkoff hold direct financial stakes - backs its reserves with U.S. Treasury bonds. The interest on those bonds, paid by American taxpayers, flows 75% into Trump and Witkoff family accounts. Every basis point of yield increase you're trading as a bullish dollar signal is simultaneously increasing the private seigniorage flowing to the family running the geopolitical crisis that generated it.
And Witkoff - the man negotiating America's position in the Middle East, the exact region where the Hormuz blockade is happening — is a direct financial beneficiary of the energy shock driving your thesis.
The safe-haven premium is real. The yield advantage is real. Your trade setup may well be correct.
But the dollar you're trading bullish is being quietly hollowed out from the inside. The question isn't whether the dollar strengthens in the next few weeks. It's whether the institution behind it still exists in the form you're pricing in.
fascinating commentary - I would hope that until the US bonds have a direct competitor on a similar scale then the USD can survive the hollowing out as you framed it.
Thank you and that's a reasonable hope. The dollar's structural advantages are real, and you're right that no external competitor comes close to matching the depth of U.S. bond markets.
But the threat I'm describing doesn't need an external competitor. It comes from within.
USD1 is backed by U.S. Treasury bonds. As it scales, it absorbs more of the Treasury market, not replacing it, but sitting on top of it, extracting the interest yield that would otherwise flow back to the public. The dollar survives. The institution behind it is hollowed out. The seigniorage, the profit from issuing currency, migrates from the Federal Reserve to a private family network.